EU Curbs May Affect 27% of Chinese Exports

Existing and proposed European Union trade measures could affect about 27% of China's annual exports to the bloc, according to a Goldman Sachs estimate reported by Bloomberg on Aug. 24. The figure measures goods potentially exposed to policy action; it is not a forecast that exports will fall by 27%.

The EU began with Chinese electric vehicles and now imposes countervailing duties ranging from 7.8% to 35.3%. Brussels and Beijing are still discussing alternatives such as minimum import prices, while Chinese automakers continue to develop European factories rather than rely indefinitely on shipping finished cars from China.

Eurostat data show the scale of the imbalance. In 2025, the value of EU goods imports from China was nearly 2.8 times its exports to China. The deficit reached about €98 billion in the first quarter of this year, the highest since the third quarter of 2022.

Steel restrictions tightened further in July. The EU cut its annual tariff-free import quota to 18.3 million tonnes, 47% below the previous quota, and imposed a 50% duty above that level. The measure covers imports from outside the European Economic Area rather than China alone, but Chinese steelmakers also face new origin-verification requirements.

Low-value e-commerce goods lost their duty exemption in the same month. About 4.6 billion such consignments enter the EU each year, and 91% come from China. The new €3 charge applies per item. If Temu and Shein leave prices unchanged, the platforms or their merchants must absorb the cost.

The effect on earnings depends on existing margins and the share of sales generated in Europe. Exporters of easily substituted goods will struggle to pass on the full cost. Companies already producing in Europe are better placed, although new plants bring depreciation, labour and supply-chain expenses. The 27% exposure estimate cannot by itself produce an earnings forecast for any company.

European companies will not benefit uniformly. Domestic steelmakers and some equipment producers may gain pricing protection, but automakers and renewable-energy developers still import Chinese components and materials. Higher upstream prices will raise costs for manufacturers further down the chain.

Goldman estimated in July that Chinese exports to the EU rose about 16% in the first five months of this year, while EU exports to China increased by less than 10%. Chinese machinery and transport-equipment suppliers are also competing for business in Asia-Pacific, Latin America and Eastern Europe. Market-share losses there are adding to the pressure on Brussels to act.

The opening date of BYD's Hungarian plant, any European price changes by Temu or Shein, and the tariff-free quotas secured by Chinese steelmakers will provide earlier answers than Goldman's aggregate figure. Costs absorbed by companies will first appear in European margins and cash flow; costs passed to customers will show up in prices and orders.

This article is based primarily on Bloomberg's Aug. 24 report on Goldman Sachs research. RuiBao cross-checked Eurostat trade data and European Commission documents covering countervailing duties on Chinese EVs, steel-import measures, low-value e-commerce charges, the International Procurement Instrument and net-zero procurement rules. Goldman's 27% figure refers to exports potentially exposed to existing and proposed measures; it is not a forecast decline. Information updated through Aug. 24, 2026. This article is not investment advice.