半导体出口管制追踪
锐报科技地缘追踪
SharpPost Tech-Geopolitics Tracker
MONTHLY UPDATE · 月度更新
2026年4月刊 · April 2026 Edition
BIS 实体清单
BIS Entity List
698
↑23 年初至今 YTD
中国芯片进口
China Chip Import
$382B
↓8.2% 同比 YoY (2025)
CHIPS 法案已拨付
CHIPS Act Disbursed
$24.7B
$52.7B 中的 46.8%
中国 AI 补贴
China AI Subsidy
¥5,000亿
($700亿) 十五五规划
政策变动时间线
Policy Timeline
2026-01-15
BIS 半导体规则修订：放宽 H20/H200 许可证销售限制——这是18个月来 Nvidia 顶级AI芯片首次获得的外交豁免。
BIS semiconductor rule revision: Eases H20/H200 sales under licensing; Nvidia's first diplomatic reprieve on top-tier AI chips in 18 months.
2026-02-03
232条款半导体调查启动：商务部就国内半导体供应进行审查，可能影响关税或补贴政策走向。
Section 232 semiconductor investigation initiated: Commerce Dept. opens review of domestic semiconductor supply; potential tariff or subsidy implications.
2026-03-05
中国宣布 ¥5,000亿 AI/芯片补贴：纳入十五五规划（两会期间发布），目标为芯片自给率提升及建设独立于美国生态的开源AI技术栈。
China announces ¥500B AI/chip subsidy: Integrated into 15th Five-Year Plan (Two Sessions); targets chip self-sufficiency and open-source AI stack independent from US ecosystems.
2026-03-07
日本/荷兰光刻机协同管制：新一轮先进半导体制造设备出口限制，与美国协调实施。
Japan/Netherlands lithography alignment: New round of export restrictions on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment coordinated with US.
2026-03-20
超微电脑涉嫌芯片走私被起诉：涉嫌将 Nvidia H100/H200 处理器非法转运至中国，系2020年以来最大规模出口管制执法案件。
Super Micro indicted for chip smuggling: Alleged diversion of Nvidia H100/H200 processors to China; largest export control enforcement case since 2020.
2026-03-24
USCC 发布「双循环」报告：指出中国开源AI战略构成双重反馈机制——国际合作反哺国内能力，补贴驱动自主芯片级创新。
USCC releases "Two Loops" report: Identifies China's open-source AI strategy as dual-feedback mechanism—international collaboration feeds domestic capabilities; subsidies drive circuit-level innovation.
实体清单追踪
Entity List Watch · Q1 2026 Additions
| 实体 Entity | 列入时间 Date Added | 原因 Reason | 领域 Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sophgo 升昊科技 | 2025-12 | AI芯片设计 AI chip design | 半导体 Semiconductor |
| Moore Threads 摩尔线程 | 2025-12 | GPU开发 GPU development | AI算力 AI Computing |
| Biren Tech 壁仞科技 | 2025-12 | AI加速器设计 AI accelerator design | AI算力 AI Computing |
| 2026年新增 +23 实体 +23 entities added YTD | — | 多类别 Various | 芯片/云/生物 Chip, Cloud, Biotech |
摘要：现有实体总数：698 | 中国半导体相关：约180 | 2025–2026年新增：89 | 增速较2023–2024同期加快65%
Total active entities: 698 | China semiconductor-related: ~180 | Added 2025–2026: 89 | Acceleration rate: +65% vs 2023–2024 period
产业链数据
Supply Chain Data & Indicators
台积电亚利桑那工厂
TSMC Arizona Fab
2025 Q4 投产
一期按计划推进；二期（2nm）预定2028年。台湾以外首座 sub-5nm 制程节点已启用。
Phase 1 on track; Phase 2 (2nm) scheduled 2028. First sub-5nm node outside Taiwan active.
中芯国际 7nm 良率
SMIC 7nm Yield Rate
60–70%
相比台积电 3nm 良率 >90%，差距仍在，但中国代工自给率已从23.3%向30%攀升。
vs TSMC 3nm >90%. Gap narrowing; China foundry self-sufficiency climbing toward 30% (2025: 23.3%).
中国芯片自给率
China Chip Self-Sufficiency
23.3% → 70%
2025年基准 → MIC 2025规划的2030年目标。需 $2,000亿+ 资本支出及美方政策持续转向。
2025 baseline → 2030 target per MIC 2025 plan. Requires $200B+ capex and sustained US policy shift.
全球半导体资本开支 2026
Global Semicon Capex 2026
$1,900亿 预测
SEMI 预测值。美国政府补贴加速（CHIPS Act II）料将推动 2027–2029年支出超趋势增长。
SEMI forecast. US government subsidy acceleration (CHIPS Act II) likely to push above-trend 2027–2029.
锐报深度分析索引
SharpPost Analysis Index · Related Coverage
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The Two-Loop Trap: How China's Open-Source AI Strategy Bypasses US Chip Blockade2026-03-24
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USCC Report: China's Open-Source AI Dual-Feedback Mechanism and the Industrial Dominance Contest2026-03-24
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Super Micro Chip Smuggling: Escalation in Export Control Enforcement and Supply Chain Risk2026-03-20
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Manus Exit Ban: When AI Founders Become Export-Controlled Goods2026-03-26
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The Trillion-Dollar Club and the Retail Trap: AI Unicorn Valuation Surge and Bag-Holding Logic2026-03-28